太阳活动变化与新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的发展

已有研究表明,新型冠状病毒肺炎(以下简称"新冠肺炎")和以往的传染病大流行与太阳活动存在着密不可分的关系.但是究竟存在什么样的关系,尚未形成一致的意见.并且这些研究大多关注于大流行事件发生的年份与太阳活动周峰谷值年份之间的对应关系,却很少分析大流行的发展过程与太阳活动过程之间的关系.本文基于2020-01-01?—?2021-09-30太阳黑子数和新冠肺炎确诊数的日、周和月数据,通过序列对比、相关分析以及变化周期比较,探究了两者之间的关系以及可能的成因联系,并利用太阳黑子变化趋势对未来新冠肺炎疫情的发展趋势进行了预测.结果表明:新冠肺炎新增病例数与太阳黑子数呈显著正相关,不仅变化趋势和过程一致,并且存在着多个相似的变化周期.假设其他因素不发生变化,随着太阳活动的增强,未来新冠肺炎新增确诊数可能还会持续地增加,到2022年9月平均每月新增新冠肺炎病例,低方案约为2500万?—?3000万,中方案可达3300万?—?3800万,高方案则达4000万?—?4600万.但是,随着疫苗的普遍接种以及群体免疫力的形成,未来新冠肺炎新增确诊数也有可能比预测值小.     

新冠肺炎疫情对咸阳市空气质量的影响

利用机器学习模型控制气象因素影响,定量分析了疫情期间污染源减排对咸阳空气质量的影响.结果表明,与未发生疫情情景相比,疫情期间咸阳PM_2.5、PM₁₀、SO₂、NO₂和CO浓度分别下降19.3%、26.0%、13.4%、60.1%和9.1%,NO₂降幅最大,SO₂和CO降幅较小,O₃浓度不降反而上升50.9%.在一次排放和二次生成前体物都下降的情况下,PM_2.5降幅低于预期,O₃浓度不降反升,反映出PM_2.5和O₃治理的复杂性,暗示了剩余污染源对咸阳空气质量影响较大,而停产限产政策（与疫情影响类似）对咸阳空气质量改善有限,未来应重点关注散煤和生物质燃烧、热力生产和供应、原油加工及石油制品制造等剩余污染源的治理.     

新冠期间河北省典型钢铁企业大气污染影响

基于国家气象局气象预报数据,建立了基于AERMOD的钢铁企业污染预报模型,模拟了新冠疫情管控期（2020年2~3月）及解封后期（2020年4~10月）河北省某钢铁企业对大气污染的影响,并结合空气质量实测数据进行模型验证.结果显示,不利风向条件下,该钢铁厂大气污染物排放对当地3个国控站点SO₂、NO_x和PM₁₀的平均浓度贡献占比,在疫情管控期分别为20.19%~33.81%,17.49%~23.46%和2.02%~2.69%,在解封后期分别为13.43%~21.01%,11.09%~20.92%和1.20%~2.22%.由于疫情管控期受其他人为源干扰较少,该钢铁厂SO₂、NO_x和PM₁₀的预报值和三个国控站点实际监测值的相关系数,在新冠疫情管控期（在单个站点中,最高分别为0.43、0.48和0.29）高于解封后期（最高分别为0.42、0.39和0.07）.     

Spatiotemporal variations of ambient air pollutants and meteorological influences over typical urban agglomerations in China during the COVID-19 lockdown

To investigate the air quality change during the COVID-19 pandemic, we analyzed spatiotemporal variations of six criteria pollutants in nine typical urban agglomerations in China using ground-based data and examined meteorological influences through correlation analysis and backward trajectory analysis under different responses. Concentrations of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, SO₂ and CO in urban agglomerations respectively decreased by 18%–45% (30%–62%), 17%–53% (22%–39%), 47%-64% (14%–41%), 9%–34% (0%–53%) and 16%-52% (23%–56%) during Lockdown (Post-lockdown) period relative to Pre-lockdown period. PM_2.5 pollution events occurred during Lockdown in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebe (BTH) and Middle and South Liaoning (MSL), and daily O₃ concentration rose to grade Ⅱ standard in Post-lockdown period. Distinct from the nationwide slump of NO₂ during Lockdown period, a rebound (～40%) in Post-lockdown period was observed in Cheng-Yu (CY), Yangtze River Middle-Reach (YRMR), Yangtze River Delta (YRD) and Pearl River Delta (PRD). With slightly higher wind speed compared with 2019, the reduction of PM_2.5 (51%–62%) in Post-lockdown period is more than 2019 (15%–46%) in HC (Harbin-Changchun), MSL, BTH, CP (Central Plain) and SP (Shandong-Peninsula), suggesting lockdown measures are effective to PM_2.5 alleviation. Although O₃ concentrations generally increased during the lockdown, its increment rate declined compared with 2019 under similar sunlight duration and temperature. Additionally, unlike HC, MSL and BTH, which suffered from additional (> 30%) air masses from surrounding areas after the lockdown, the polluted air masses reaching YRD and PRD mostly originated from the long-distance transport, highlighting the importance of joint regional governance.     

Impact of meteorological condition changes on air quality and particulate chemical composition during the COVID-19 lockdown

Stringent quarantine measures during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) lockdown period (January 23, 2020 to March 15, 2020) have resulted in a distinct decrease in anthropogenic source emissions in North China Plain compared to the paralleled period of 2019. Particularly, 22.7% decrease in NO₂ and 3.0% increase of O₃ was observed in Tianjin, nonlinear relationship between O₃ generation and NO₂ implied that synergetic control of NO_x and VOCs is needed. Deteriorating meteorological condition during the COVID-19 lockdown obscured the actual PM_2.5 reduction. Fireworks transport in 2020 Spring Festival (SF) triggered regional haze pollution. PM_2.5 during the COVID-19 lockdown only reduced by 5.6% in Tianjin. Here we used the dispersion coefficient to normalize the measured PM_2.5 (DN-PM_2.5), aiming to eliminate the adverse meteorological impact and roughly estimate the actual PM_2.5 reduction, which reduced by 17.7% during the COVID-19 lockdown. In terms of PM_2.5 chemical composition, significant NO₃^? increase was observed during the COVID-19 lockdown. However, as a tracer of atmospheric oxidation capacity, odd oxygen (O_x = NO₂ + O₃) was observed to reduce during the COVID-19 lockdown, whereas relative humidity (RH), specific humidity and aerosol liquid water content (ALWC) were observed with noticeable enhancement. Nitrogen oxidation rate (NOR) was observed to increase at higher specific humidity and ALWC, especially in the haze episode occurred during 2020SF, high air humidity and obvious nitrate generation was observed. Anomalously enhanced air humidity may response for the nitrate increase during the COVID-19 lockdown period.     

Arsenite oxidation by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alcaligenes</Emphasis> sp. strain RS-19 isolated from arsenic-contaminated mines in the Republic of Korea

Arsenite [As(III)]-oxidizing bacteria play important roles in reducing arsenic [As] toxicity and mobility in As-contaminated areas. As-resistant bacteria were isolated from the soils of two abandoned mines in the Republic of Korea. The isolated bacteria showed relatively high resistances to As(III) up to 26 mM. The PCR-based 16S rRNA analysis revealed that the isolated As-resistant bacteria were close relatives to Serratia marcescensa, Pseudomonas putida, Pantoea agglomerans, and Alcaligenes sp. Among the five As-resistant bacterial isolates, Alcaligenes sp. strain RS-19 showed the highest As(III)-oxidizing activity in batch tests, completely oxidizing 1 mM of As(III) to As(V) within 40 h during heterotrophic growth. This study suggests that the indigenous bacteria have evolved to retain the ability to resist toxic As in the As-contaminated environments and moreover to convert the species to a less toxic form [e.g., from As(III) to As(V)] and also contribute the biogeochemical cycling of As by being involved in speciation of As.     

实施最严格的野生动物保护:中国现状与改革方向

随着全球工业化和城市化的快速发展,野生动物及其栖息地保护面临着前所未有的挑战。本文识别了我国的野生动物保护存在的主要问题:(1)现行《野生动物保护法》对野生动物保护范围界定过窄,资源利用主导思维干扰了野生动物保护,缺乏对生态系统与生物安全的足够重视。(2)由于现行野生动物保护立法、执法和管理制度不健全甚至缺失,导致野生动物驯养繁殖交易市场长期混乱,甚至成为非法野生动物交易的"洗白工具"。(3)社会公众群体尊重和保护野生动物意识淡薄,全民参与和监督举报机制不健全。本文认为,我国应该实施最严格的野生动物保护制度,实现人与野生动物平等、文明、和谐相处,建议:(1)树立尊重野生动物物种生存权、人与野生动物文明和谐相处的理念,摒弃野生动物资源利用观,重构人与野生动物平等共存关系。(2)清晰界定野生动物法律定义,扩大野生动物保护范围,围绕捕猎、繁育、运输、储存、转让、食用等环节,全面、科学、精准地构建最严格的野生动物保护制度。(3)立足于全面保护野生动物,严格禁止滥食滥用野生动物和过度商业化利用,实行野生动物保护利用特许制度,并大幅提高标准严格控制交易和利用,建立职责清晰的执法监管和惩治体系。(4)建立最严格的野生动物保护公众参与和司法治理体系,实施野生动物非法贸易、猎杀的行政公益诉讼制度,引导公众建立爱护保护野生动物、不食不用野生动物的文明行为,最终实现人类社会与野生动物的文明和谐共处。     

The prenatal detection of a familial pericentric inversion of chromosome 19

A familial pericentric inversion of chromosome 19 was detected prenatally in a young primagravida. As far as the authors are aware there are no previous published reports of this rare abnormality being ascertained in this manner. The problems of counselling such a family are considered.     

新冠肺炎疫情对农村人居环境整治的影响

新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19,简称“新冠肺炎”）疫情的发生,影响了我国经济水平较低、环境管控力度较薄弱的农村地区的发展.通过对新冠肺炎防疫过程与农村人居环境整治工作间的相互关系进行剖析,探究新冠肺炎疫情防控对农村人居环境整治的主要影响.结果表明,农村垃圾堆积、污水处理不当、厕所粪污无害化处理不达标以及基础设施建设不完善等农村人居环境薄弱环节,存在形成病毒传播扩散途径的风险.而交通运输限制虽然有效抑制了新冠肺炎疫情扩散,但也致使农村人居整治工作延滞.同时,新冠肺炎疫情的传播扩散在短期内限制了农民行为活动,降低了群众对农村人居环境整治工作的热情.据此,建议应健全农村人居环境整治制度,完善整治工程技术,从而在有效管控新冠肺炎疫情传播的同时,更好地推进农村人居环境整治,提高农民生活质量,为疫情过后恢复农民生活、农业生产以及农村发展打下坚实的基础.      

后疫情时期的经济复苏与绿色发展:对立还是共赢

后疫情时期的大规模经济刺激计划引发了人们对绿色发展可能让位于经济复苏的担忧。尽管“绿色复苏”得到国内外广泛的呼吁和支持,但绿色是否意味着经济的妥协?绿色复苏可能面临怎样的挑战?这些问题的考量,对我国科学部署经济发展战略、完善顶层政策设计至关重要。基于疫情暴发以来的出行大数据、防疫管控措施等最新信息,构建细化经济复苏过程的全球疫情自适应模型,量化模拟不同复苏方案对经济、就业的拉动效应和碳排放影响。研究发现:以发展清洁能源和数字经济为主的绿色复苏方案对经济体量的拉动效应等同,甚至超过以化石能源和重工业为主的传统经济刺激方案;但前者面临的劳动力转型挑战可能拖慢经济复苏的进程。“绿色复苏”方案对我国经济体量的拉动效应比传统刺激方案高0.3%~14.8%,创造就业岗位数量变化-4%~3%,但同时需要近1亿人(约为初始就业人口总量的13%)跨行业就业,其中受疫情影响较大的中、低技能劳动者占96%以上。跨行业就业门槛和劳动者技能瓶颈可能增加劳动力流转匹配的时间成本,甚至带来“结构性失业”问题和社会不平等加剧的次生伤害。认为:经济复苏与绿色发展本质上不是对立的单选题,而是存在共赢的可能性。对“绿色复苏”在经济、就业和环境三方面正向协同效益的边界条件应有清醒认识和把握,仅仅关注经济拉动效应和创造就业岗位总量的潜在效益而忽视实现该理论效益的现实条件,可能会造成对经济刺激方案选择的误判。加强劳动力市场的灵活性、推动社会公正转型是提升经济系统韧性、实现复苏与绿色共赢的前瞻性举措。